Global Warming and a Potential Tipping Point in the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation: The Role of Risk Aversion
نویسندگان
چکیده
Common integrated assessment models produce the counterintuitive result that higher risk aversion does not lead to stronger near-term abatement. This paper re-examines this result with a DICE model that is fully coupled with a thermohaline circulation model. It also features Epstein-Zin utility and uncertainty about climate sensitivity that resolves after some time. The simulations show that aversion to this tipping point risk has little effect. For climate sensitivity of realistic magnitude, a collapse of the circulation occurs in the distant future, which allows acting after learning. Furthermore, the anticipated damage costs are not sufficiently great to justify precautionary measures. JEL-Code: Q540, Q560, C610, C630.
منابع مشابه
Global warming and marine carbon cycle feedbacks on future atmospheric CO2
A low-order physical-biogeochemical climate model was used to project atmospheric carbon dioxide and global warming for scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation weakens in all global warming simulations and collapses at high levels of carbon dioxide. Projected changes in the marine carbon cycle have a modest impact on atmo...
متن کاملEarly warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness
We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varyin...
متن کاملA low-order model for the response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to climate change
Concern has been expressed that anthropogenic climate change may lead to a slowdown or even collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Because of the possibly severe consequences that such an event could have on the northern North Atlantic and northwestern Europe, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are needed to explore the associated political and socioeconomic implications. Sta...
متن کاملMultidecadal Variability of North Atlantic Temperature and Salinity during the Twentieth Century
Substantial changes occurred in the North Atlantic during the twentieth century. Here the authors demonstrate, through the analysis of a vast collection of observational data, that multidecadal fluctuations on time scales of 50–80 yr are prevalent in the upper 3000 m of the North Atlantic Ocean. Spatially averaged temperature and salinity from the 0–300and 1000–3000-m layers vary in opposition:...
متن کاملIntermediate depth warming in the tropical Atlantic related to weakened thermohaline circulation: Combining paleoclimate data and modeling results for the last deglaciation
[1] Benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratios from two sediment cores recovered at 426 and 1299 m water depth in the eastern and western tropical Atlantic show that a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) during Heinrich event H1 and the Younger Dryas was accompanied by rapid and intense warming of intermediate depth waters. Millennial-scale covariations of low paleosalinities in the...
متن کامل